河道洪水预报的不确定性分析

Uncertainty analysis of river channel flood forecast

以线性特征河长演算法为基础,应用随机微分方程理论,对河道洪水预报中的不确定性进行分析,建立了蓄量系数为随机变量的河道洪水预报模型,并在理论上给出蓄量系数服从正态分布时出流过程的统计特征值。结果表明,考虑洪水预报中的不确定性,可以确定出流过程的不确定度,为防洪决策提供依据。

Uncertainty of river channel flood forecast is analyzed basing on forward algorithm of linear characteristic. River channel flood forecast model is built by random differential equation theory. Storage coefficient is random variable in the model. Storage coefficient obeyed theoretically statistical characteristics of normal distribution outflow process. The result shows the uncertainty of river channel flood forecast is considered to determine uncertainty of outflow process to provide evidence for flood decision.