常规-非常规天然气理论、技术及前景

Theory, technology and prospects of conventional and unconventional natural gas

中国天然气进入跨越式发展的黄金时期,成为向清洁能源过渡不可逾越的桥梁。通过对国内外天然气发展现状、理论技术、潜力前景进行重点研究和阐述,结果表明:(1)全球天然气资源丰富,剩余探明可采储量186×10^(12) m^3,储采比为52.4,具备长期加快发展的资源基础;(2)提出了常规-非常规天然气地质学内涵,其形成分布具有10条规律,天然气勘探地质形成以不同气源为核心的常规圈闭"单体型"大气田成藏理论、以不同岩类储集层为核心的非常规"连续型"甜点区聚集理论,天然气开发地质形成以常规"控制水侵"为核心的构造气藏开发理论、以"人工气藏"为核心的非常规天然气开发理论;(3)中国天然气地质资源量(不含天然气水合物)达210×10^(12) m^3,整体探明率不足2%,天然气储产量将持续增长,预计2030年前年增探明地质储量约为(6 000～7 000)×10~8 m^3,预计2030年常规、非常规气产量均有望达到1 000×10~8 m^3左右,消费量需求可达5 500×10~8 m^3,天然气对外依存度可能达到64%,2050年可能达到70%;(4)提出中国未来天然气发展应加大资源规模区勘探力度、提高非常规气开发效益、增强储气库调峰与LNG(液化天然气)规模建设等10条措施。

The development of natural gas in China has entered a golden and leap-forward stage, which is a necessary bridge to clean energy. This in-depth study on the status quo, theory, technology and prospect of natural gas development shows： （1） The global remaining proven recoverable reserves of natural gas are 186×10^12 m3, and the reserves-production ratio is 52.4, indicating a solid resource base for long-term and rapid development. （2） Ten formation and distribution laws of conventional and unconventional natural gas reservoirs have been proposed. In terms of exploration geology, the theory of conventional “monolithic” giant gas fields with different gas sources, and an unconventional gas accumulation theory with continuous distribution of “sweet spots” in different lithologic reservoirs have been established; in terms of development geology, a development theory of conventional structural gas reservoirs is oriented to “controlling water intrusion”, while a development theory of unconventional gas is concentrated on artificial gas reservoirs. （3） With the geological resources of 210×10^12 m3 （excluding hydrates） and the total proven rate of the resources less than 2% at present, the natural gas in China will see a constant increase in reserve and production; by 2030, the proven geological reserves of natural gas are expected to reach about （6 000-7 000）×10^8 m3, the production of conventional and unconventional natural gas each will reach about 1 000×10^8 m3, and the gas consumption will reach 5500×10^8 m3. The dependence on imported natural gas may be 64% by 2030, and 70% by 2050. （4） Ten measures for future development of natural gas have been proposed, including strengthening exploration in large-scale resource areas, increasing the development benefits of unconventional gas, and enhancing the peak adjusting capacity of gas storage and scale construction of liquified natural gas.