计划生育政策如何影响城乡收入差距——基于CFPS数据的实证分析

How Does Family Planning Policy Affect Urban-Rural Income Gap——An Analysis Based on CFPS Project

基于CFPS(2010)数据,实证分析计划生育政策对城乡收入差距的影响机制,并利用Oaxaca-Blinder分解法和RIF回归分解法测度了计划生育政策对城乡收入差距的贡献度。结果表明:(1)计划生育政策有利于子代收入的提高,且对城镇的收入边际效应大于农村;(2)政策允许家庭生育数量越多,越不利于农村家庭子代收入的提高,家庭一旦超生则会显著降低子代收入,而且相对于农村家庭子代而言,城镇家庭超生对子代收入的负向影响更大;(3)计划生育政策对城乡收入差距的拉力呈现出U型特征,对低、高收入群体的影响较大,而对中等收入人群的城乡收入差距贡献相对较小,其中政策允许生育胎数起到了决定性作用。因此,计划生育政策应统筹全局、因地制宜、奖惩兼施,以提高农村的人力资本水平和子女的教育质量,促使城乡居民生育率和人力资本水平趋同。

Using the database provided by China Family Panel Survey（ CFPS） 2010,this paper not only analyzed the influence of family planning policy on urban-rural income gap,but also Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method and RIF regression decomposition method are used to measure the contribution of family planning policy to urban and rural income gap. The result shows that：（ 1） the family planning policy is conducive to improvement of children’s income,and the marginal effect of income on urban is greater than that of rural;（ 2） the policy allows for more births is not conducive to improvement of rural children’s income. It will significantly lower the income of the children if family super living,and the negative impact on urban is greater than that of rural;（ 3） the family planning policy presents a u-shaped thrust on urban-rural income gap,the role of low-income and high-income groups is large but relatively small for middle-income groups.Therefore,the family planning policy should coordinate the overall situation,take measures according to local conditions,reward and punish both,improve the level of human capital in rural areas and the quality of education of children,and promote the convergence of fertility rate and human capital level of urban and rural residents.