股票市场超额回报、参考机制与企业并购——来自制造业上市公司的经验证据

Excess Return in Stock Market,Reference Mechanism and Merger and Acquisition:Empirical Evidence from the Listed Manufacturing Companies

利用中国沪深两地制造业上市公司2001—2016年并购事件为样本,探究企业先前并购事件的股票市场超额回报对后续并购行为的参照作用。研究发现,超额亏损与企业并购可能性呈显著负相关关系,超额收益与企业并购可能性呈显著正相关关系。进一步研究发现,超额收益较高时,超额收益与并购可能性的正相关关系并不显著。此外,并购绩效变动性与环境不确定性有重要的调节作用,较高的历史并购绩效变动性削弱了市场超额回报对后续并购行为的影响作用,较高的环境不确定性增强了两者之间的关系。

Using the M A events of manufacturing firms in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2001 to 2016 as a sample,this paper explores the reference impact of the excess return in the stock market of the previous merger and acquisition event on the subsequent acquisition behaviors. It is found that abnormal loss is negatively correlated with the possibility of M A,and the excess return has a significant positive correlation with the possibility of M A. Further studies show that when the abnormal gains become extremely high,the significant positive relationship disappears. Moreover,M A performance variability and environmental uncertainty play an important regulating role. Higher performance variability in the previous acquisition weakens the impact of market excess returns on subsequent mergers and acquisitions,while higher environmental uncertainty enhances the relationship between the two.