人口红利消失与否之辩——来自家庭微观调查数据的证据

Debate on the Disappearing or Not of Demographic Dividend——Evidence from Family Microcosmic Survey Data

利用家庭入户调查数据从微观视角分析人口红利,探索人口红利的微观作用机制.结果显示:当前人口红利并未消失.除了劳动年龄结构优势之外,劳动者的人力资本和就业结构均有助于人口红利的获取.产生于上述三个方面的人口数量红利、人口素质红利和人口结构红利是未来人口红利的三个维度.在低生育率背景下,子代兄弟姐妹数小于父代兄弟姐妹数的家庭占主导,这类家庭并未对当前人口红利造成影响,但未来不利于人口红利的获取.应从分步延长退休年龄、鼓励按政策生育、加强职业培训、消除流动障碍等多方面着手提升劳动者职业技能,提高劳动生产效率,优化就业结构,进一步拓展和延长人口红利.

In this paper,by using of the family survey data,the demographic dividend is analyzed and the microscopic mechanism of the demographic dividend is explored from the microscopic perspective. The results show that the current demographic dividend has not disappeared. In addition to the structural advantage of the labor age,the manpower capital and employment structure of the workers will help to obtain the dividend of the population. The dividend of the population size,the dividend of the quality of population and the dividend of the structure of population produced in the above three aspects are the three dimensions of the future demographic dividend. Under the background of low fertility,the families with the number of brothers and sisters of the offspring is less than the number of brothers and sisters of the father generation is dominant. Such families do not affect the current demographic dividend,but they are not conducive to the acquisition of demographic dividends in the future. We should enhance worker’s vocational skills,improve labor productivity,optimize employment structure and expand and extend demographic dividend from the following aspects： extending the retirement age step by step,encourage baby bearing according to the fertility policy,strengthening vocational training and eliminating flow barriers.