我国沿海地区基本养殖用海需求量预测研究

Study on Quantity Forecast of the Basic Mariculture Area in Chinese Coastal Regions

参考海水产品消费量推算海域使用面积的思路,厘清了水产品消费量和养殖用海面积之间的关系。通过重建和完善养殖用海需求量估算的数学模型,开展了我国沿海地区基本养殖用海需求量的预测研究,并推算出2050年全国沿海11个省(区、市)基本养殖用海需求面积。预测结果可以为全国养殖用海的保有量目标、沿海地方基本养殖用海规模的划定等方面提供参考。研究表明:2050年我国基本养殖用海总需求量为421.24万hm2;其中,山东省和辽宁省的基本养殖用海需求面积最大,在全国总需求量中占比为45%;广西壮族自治区和海南省的需求量相对较小;天津市和河北省的养殖用海供需比最低,建议这两个地方在新一轮海洋功能区划编制时考虑扩大养殖用海规模。

The relationship between the consumption of seawater products and the sea area used for mariculture is clarified according to the estimation of sea using area by the consumption of seawater products. By rebuilding and perfecting the mathematical model of estimating the quantity demanded for sea area used for mariculture,a study on forecast of quantity demanded for sea area used for the basic mariculture in the coastal regions of China is curried out,and the sea using area demanded for basic mariculture in 11 coastal regions of China by 2050 is estimated.The forecast results may provide references in the aspects of the holding quantity target of sea area using for mariculture in the whole country and the demarcation of sea-using scale for local basic mariculture. The results show that by 2050 the total quantity demanded for sea area used for basic mariculture in China is 4,212,400 hm2,of which the quantity demanded is the largest in Shandong and Liaoning provinces,making up 45% of the total,and is relatively smaller in Guangxi and Hainan provinces. The ratio of the supply to the demand of the sea using area for mariculture is the lowest in Tianjin City and Hebei province. It is,therefore,suggested that the expansion of the seausing scale for mariculture in these two regions should be considered when formulating the marine functional zoning next round.