基于DEMATEL和Copras-g法的大科学工程项目执行效果影响因素分析

Implementation Influencing Factors of the Outsourced Big Science Projects:A DEMATEL-Copras-g-based Analysis

[目的/意义]由于我国大科学工程项目特殊的外协模式,其执行与实施具有巨复杂、多变化、难控制的发展特点,但目前尚未有科学的方法与工具能够对其执行效果进行评估评价。[方法/过程]结合系统因素驱动机制,首先建立了大科学工程项目的执行效果因素模型框架,再通过实际调研获取的研究数据,运用DEMATEL的方法,分析项目执行效果影响因素之间的相互作用关系,揭示各影响因素之间的综合影响程度,识别关键因素。然后针对关键因素对应的战略响应方案,引入Copras-g计算各方案对战略执行效果产生的效用值,实现因素分析向最终效用水平的进一步量化。[结果/结论]研究发现,影响大科学工程项目执行效果的关键因素是外协关系协调水平、集体主义特征、沟通频率、沟通方式有效性、外协进度等因素。同时,由各方案效用值的计算结果得知,目前的响应方案均在促进因素发挥积极作用、牵制因素产生消极影响方面表现出了良好的水平,其中增加沟通频率这一方案对执行效果的作用最佳。

[Purpose/Significance]The research is aimed at solving the problem of the scientific evaluation of the implementation of the outsourced big science projects in China.[Method/Process]Based on the special outsourcing model of China＇s big science project and the characteristics of its implementation,a model framework of the strategic execution effect factors of the large-scale scientific engineering project is established. The research data are obtained through the actual investigation and research,and the interaction between the influencing factors of the strategy execution effect is analyzed by DEMATEL method. Then,according to the large-scale scientific response plan of the key factors,Copras-g is introduced to calculate the utility value of each program on the execution of the strategy,so as to further quantify the final utility level of the factor analysis.[Result/Conclusion]The research shows that the key factors influencing the effect of strategic execution of large-scale science projects are the coordination level of external relations,the characteristics of collectivism,the frequency of communication,the effectiveness of communication and the progress of external cooperation.