大科学工程项目合同共担风险分担模型研究

Research on Shared Risk Sharing Model of Large Science Projects' Contract

[目的/意义]合理的风险分担更有助于工程项目的顺利实施,如何使大科学工程项目在合同风险分担时能更有具有科学性和合理性非常关键。目前大科学工程项目的合同共担风险分担大多靠专家经验确定,这样难以有效激励供应商,同时也导致了更多的风险损失。[方法/过程]在传统Shapley值法的基础上,用区间数表示专家评估的风险损失减少值,并考虑影响风险分担的合同双方参与程度、风险管控能力、风险偏好三个因子修正区间Shapley值,以此构建大科学工程合同共担风险分担模型。同时引入风险偏好满意度公式验证风险分配结果的合理性。[结果/结论]以SG大科学工程中的不可抗力风险分担为例进行模型算例分析,为大科学工程的合同共担风险分担比例的确定提供了科学有效的参考区间。

[Purpose/Significance]Reasonable risk sharing is helpful for the implementation of projects,so howto make the contract risk sharing in large science projects more scientific and rational is very crucial. At present,most of the shared risk sharing in large science project＇s contracts is determined by the experts ＇ experience,which makes it difficult to motivate suppliers and results in more risks loss.[Method/Process]Therefore,based on the traditional Shapley value method,we built the shared risk sharing model of large science projects＇ contract using the interval number to represent the reduction of risk loss value of experts,and considered the participation degree,risk control ability and risk preference of the two parties to fix the traditional Shapley value. Then we introduced the risk appetite satisfaction formula to verify that the risk allocation result is reasonable.[Result/Conclusion]Finally,we took the example of force majeure risk sharing in SG large science project as a case study to provide a scientific and effective reference interval for the design of large science project＇s contract decision.