基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的我国肺结核发病率的预测分析

Analysis of Incidence of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in China Based on Grey GM(1,1) Model

目的通过收集2008—2012年中国肺结核发病率情况数据,构建模型进行预测,为控制肺结核疾病提供数据参考。方法通过Excel建立数据库,利用灰色GM(1,1)模型进行预测。结果 2008—2020年的的肺结核疾病发病率情况呈逐年下降趋势;2008—2015年肺结核疾病预测结果也呈下降趋势,预测结果的误差值均在3.00%以下,平均误差为1.45%。结论预测结果良好。

Objective By collecting data on the incidence of tuberculosis in China during the period from 2008 to 2012, a model was constructed to predict and provide data for the control of tuberculosis. Methods The database was built by EXCEL and forecasted using the grey GM（1,1） model. Results The incidence of tuberculosis disease from 2008 to 2020 has been declining year by year; the forecast results of tuberculosis disease have also shown a downward trend from 2008 to2015. The error of prediction results is below 3.00%, and the average error is 1.45%. Conclusion The forecast result is good.