基于不确定理论的二级供应链订货量决策

Determination of optimal purchasing quantity of two-echelon supply chain based on uncertainty theory

针对不确定环境下的二级供应链订购决策问题,提出了一种二级供应链订货量决策模型,该模型基于不确定理论,以供应链整体利润最大化为目标,在制造商和零售商的约束条件限制下,借助不确定理论中的悲观值概念,将不确定机会约束规划模型转化为可求解的确定性形式,求解出了决策者可接受的置信度下的最优订货量。通过算例分析,结果表明,模型将决策者的风险偏好,融入到供应链订货量决策过程中,使不确定机会约束规划与供应链决策领域进行融合,可为确定订货量提供定量化的依据。

A decision model based on uncertainty theory for ordering quantity of two-stage supply chain is proposed with aims to maximize the overall profit of supply chain.Under the constraints of manufacturers and retailers,the uncertain chance constrained programming model is transformed into a solvable deterministic form by means of the concept of pessimistic value in uncertain theory.The optimal order quantity under the confidence level acceptable to the decision maker is then calculated.Results show that the risk preference of decision makers is integrated into the decision-making process of supply chain order in the model,and uncertain opportunity constraint programming and supply chain decision-making domain are also integrated in the model.All these can provide quantitative basis for determining order quantity.