我国旅游产业发展与经济增长相关性研究

The correlative study of tourism industry development and economic growth of our country

选取1990—2014年旅游统计数据,通过单位根检验、协整分析、格兰杰因果检验等计量经济学方法,对我国旅游产业发展与经济增长进行实证分析.结果表明,旅游总收入、旅游外汇收入与GDP之间均存在着长期协整关系;在格兰杰因果检验中,旅游外汇收入、旅游总收入不是经济增长的格兰杰原因,经济增长与旅游外汇收入、旅游总收入是格兰杰原因,经济增长与旅游外汇收入、旅游总收入是单向格兰杰原因.针对这一结果,提出了相应的对策.

According to the tourism statistical data from 1990 to 2014,the correlation between tourism industry development and economic growth of Heilongjiang was analyzed empirically with co-integration test and Granger causality test.The results showed there exists a long-term co-integrating relationship among tourism revenue,tourist foreign exchange income and GDP;tourism revenue a deconomic growth are mutually Granger reasons;tourism foreign exchange income is not the Granger reasons of economic growth and tourism foreign exchange income are the cause of Grainger;economic growth is one way of Grainger reasons.According to this results some suggestions are proposed.