黄河金三角地区人口结构与经济发展耦合分析

Coupling Analysis of Population Structure and Economic Development in the Golden Triangle Area of the Yellow River

运用灰色关联分析法和耦合协调度模型,评价黄河金三角地区人口结构与经济发展相互影响程度,测算47个县区两者的耦合度和协调度,从时空演化视角分析该区域人口结构与经济增长内在关系变化情况.得出结论:(1)黄河金三角地区人口结构中城乡结构与经济体系的综合关联度最大,而文化结构对经济发展影响最小.(2)经济发展系统中收入水平对人口结构影响最大,其中城镇居民可支配收入对其影响最大.(3)黄河金三角地区人口结构与经济发展10年间耦合程度较低,低水平耦合阶段地区占74.4%,仅义马市与盐湖区由拮抗阶段上升至磨合阶段.研究区内拮抗和磨合阶段地区呈倒"T"型分布.(4)2000—2010年研究区协调程度较低,低协调度区由原来的91.5%下降至87.2%.

This paper uses the gray relational analysis method to evaluate the interaction between population structure and economic development in the golden triangle area of the Yellow River. Based on this,the coupling coordination degree model is used to estimate the coupling degree and coordination degree of population structure and economic development in 47 counties. At the same time,this paper analyzes the change of the internal structure of the population structure and economic growth from the perspective of time and space. The results show that：（1）The comprehensive correlation between urban-rural structure and economic system is the highest and cultural structure has the least impact on economic develop-ment.（2）In economic development,the income level has the greatest impact on the population structure. In particular,the disposable income of urban residents has the greatest impact on the population structure.（3） During the study period the degree of coupling was low in this area.Low-level coupling phase of the area accounted for 74.4% and only Yima City and Salt Lake District rose from antagonistic phase to running-in phase.Areas in the stage of antagonism and running-in showed＂T＂ type distribution.（4） The overall level of coordination between population structure and economic development in 2000－2010 is relatively low,but in the decade the low-coordinated coupling area has been reduced from 91.5% to 87.2%.