“一带一路”建设下我国对外直接投资效率及其影响因素——基于随机前沿引力模型

The Efficiency and Influencing Factors of Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment Along "the Belt and Road" ——Based on SFA Gravity Model

选取2003-2014年中国与"一带一路"沿线52个国家的面板数据,建立随机前沿引力模型进行实证分析。结果表明:我国对沿线国家投资存在市场寻求和资源寻求动机;东道国经济自由度、政治稳定与政府效率、法律和腐败监管程度、劳动力丰裕程度与直接投资效率正相关,通讯基础设施条件表现为负相关;总体而言,中国对沿线国家直接投资效率较低,仍有较大提升空间,在对沿线国家的直接投资中,对发展中经济体的投资效率要优于发达经济体和转型经济体。对此,建议与东南亚、南亚国家深化经贸合作,与中亚、中东、独联体国家开展安全协作,与中欧、东欧国家加强技术输出合作的对策建议,以进一步提高对各区域的投资效率。

Based on the panel data of 52 countries in 2003-2014, the empirical analysis is carried out by using stochastic frontier approach gravity model. The results show that market-seeking and resource-seeking motivations exist in Chinese outward FDI along the B＆R. The economic freedom, political stability and governmental efficiency, laws and corruption supervision and labor abundance in host countries have positive corelations with the investment efficiency but conditions of communication infrastructure have negative one. Generally speaking, Chinese OFDI efficiency in the B＆R countries is relatively low and there is still much room to improve, among which the efficiency in the developing economies is higher than that in developed and transition economies. Therefore, to raise investment efficiency, this paper proposes suggestions such as deepening economic and trade cooperation with Southeast and South Asia, carrying out security cooperation with Central Asia, Middle East and the Commonwealth of the Independent States, and strengthening technology export cooperation with Central Europe and East Europe.