我国社保支出与经济增长的相关性研究——基于VAR模型的实证

On the Correlation between Social Security Expenditure and Economic Growth in China based on VAR Model

社会保障支出和经济增长究竟具有何种内在关系,历来在社会保障研究领域中保持只增不减的热度。文章首先列举了中国与西方部分国家各自不同的社会保障支出构成,阐述了当前我国社会保障水平处于何种状况;其次选取1978-2016年与之相关的经济数据,运用计量模型,深入考察两者呈现出何种动态关系,研究结果印证:二者具有单向因果关系,经济增长对社会保障支出具有推动力,反之社会保障支出并非经济增长动因,并在此基础上提出若干政策建议。

The intrinsic relationship between social security expenditure and economic growth has always been dis cussed in the field of social security research. Firstly, this paper discusses the social security expenditure composition of China as well as some western countries and regions, and expounds the current situation of social security level in China. Secondly, this paper selects related economic data from 1978 to 2016, and analyzes the dynamic relationship between them by using the econometric model, and it% confirmed that they have a one--way causal relationship, eco nomic growth has impetus to social security, but social security expenditure is not a driver to economic growth. On this basis, several policy suggestions are proposed.