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大都市区服务业能耗碳排放及其影响因素研究——以北京市为例 被引量:2

Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption in the Service Industry of Metropolitan Regions and Research on Its Influencing Factors:A Case Study of Beijing City
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摘要 在大都市区服务业增加值比例日趋增大、一二产业节能减排成果边际效益递减的背景下,服务业成为节能减排的新领域。基于IPCC温室气体排放清单指南中的方法,核算了北京市1995—2014年服务业整体及其分行业能耗与CO_2排放量,并分析了其总体变化趋势和能源结构的变化情况;采用投入产出表计算了2007、2012年的完排强度;运用对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)辨识与分解研究了2005—2014年影响北京服务业CO_2排放变动的关键因素及其贡献率。结果显示:服务业能耗碳排放逐年递增,且能耗排放的增速快于能耗增速,服务业能源强度与能耗直排强度都呈现出同步下降的态势;服务业能耗以石油类为主,煤炭消费所占的比例逐年下降,能耗结构正朝着合理化、低煤化的良性方向发展;服务业最终需求完排强度呈逐年下降之势,服务业大部分行业的间排强度在完排强度中所占比例也都有明显降低的趋势;产业规模、人口规模是引起服务业能耗直接碳排放增长的主要因素,而能源强度则是抑制服务业能耗直排增加的因素。 With the increasing proportion of value-added services in metropolitan areas and the diminishing marginal effect of energy saving and carbon reduction in the primary and secondary service industries, service industry has become a new field of energy saving and carbon reduction. Based on the CO2 emissions coefficient and the accounting methods of energy consumption recommended by IPCC in the Guidelines for National Green Gas Inventories, a calculation has been made of the overall energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the service industry in Beijing from the year 1995 to 2014, followed by an analysis of the overall change trend and the change of energy structure, along with a calculation of the complete CO2 emission intensity by using Beijing' s comparable price input and output data between 2007 and 2012. By using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) identification and decomposition, a study has been conducted on the key factors affecting CO2 emissions of Beijing' s service industry from the year 2005 to 2014 years as well as their contribution rates. The results show that the energy consumption carbon emission of service industry is increasing year by year, and the growth rate of energy consumption is faster than energy consumption. The energy intensity of service industry and the direct discharge intensity of energy consumption are decreasing synchronously. The energy consumption of the service industry is dominated by petroleum. The proportion of coal consumption is decreasing year by year, and the energy consumption structure presents an upward trend characterized with rationalization and low coal production. The final requirement for the service industry is declining year by year, and the proportion of indirect CO2 emission intensity of service in most of the service industry shows an obviously decreasing trend. The industrial scale and population size are the main factors that lead to the direct carbon emission growth of the service industry, while the energy intensity is the curbing factor of the direct increase in the energy consumption of the service industry.
作者 张旺 ZHANG Wang(Global Joint Research Centre for Low Carbon City, Hunan University of Technology, Zhuzhou Hunan 412007, China)
出处 《湖南工业大学学报》 2018年第4期1-10,共10页 Journal of Hunan University of Technology
基金 中国社会科学院生态文明研究智库基金资助项目(2015GKZJ012) 湖南工业大学建筑与城乡规划学院青年科研基金资助项目(2014JGLZ01)
关键词 服务业能耗 碳排放 直排强度 完排强度 影响因素 service energy consumption CO2 emission direct CO2 emission intensity complete CO2 emissionintensity influencing factor
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