基于SARIMA模型的曲靖市空气质量指数预测

Prediction of Air Quality Index in Qujing Based on SARIMA Model

采用2014年1月到2017年12月曲靖市环境空气质量综合指数月度数据,应用R软件,通过对数据序列进行白噪声、平稳性、自相关和偏相关性的分析,建立曲靖市空气质量预测SARMA模型,检验了模型的显著性,进行了6期预测分析.研究结果表明,模型的拟合值与真实值之间误差非常小,曲靖市AQI序列在未来一段时间内呈递减趋势.

Based on the monthly data of ambient air quality index of Qujing from January 2014 to December2017,this paper analyzes the white noise,stationarity,autocorrelation and partial correlation of data series by using R software,and establishes the SARMA model,the air quality prediction model of Qujing. The significance of the model has been tested. And this paper has conducted a six-period forecasting analysis. The research results show that the error between the fitted value and the real value of the model is very small,and the AQI sequence in Qujing shows a decreasing trend in the future.