基于回归分析的我国货币供应量与GDP关系研究

The Research on the Relationship of China's Money Supply and GDP Based on the Regression Model

文章首先基于1990-2016年GDP与M_2的数据,通过建立计量经济学模型,对货币供应量与GDP的关系进行实证分析,得到国民经济总量每增加1%,平均来说,相应的货币供应量应该增加1.226%,从而为央行制定货币政策提供一定的参考依据;其次,通过回归模型对我国M2/GDP指标做了时间序列变化趋势分析,得出在1990-2003年与2009-2016这两个阶段M2/GDP大约年平均增长率分别为0.0512%、0.02643%,并根据分析结果,为我国今后的产业结构调整提供相关建议。

This paper adopts the data of GDP and M2 from 1990 to 2016 and employs the econometric model to empirically analyze the relationship between money supply and GDP. The study result shows that when GDP increases by 1%, the corresponding money supply should increase by 1.226% on average, thus providing a certain reference for the People＇s Bank of China to make its monetary policy. Then this paper sets up the regression model to analyse M2/GDP index every year in our country. The study result shows that M2/GDP increases by 0.0512% and 0.0264% respectively from 1990 to 2003 and from 2009 to 2016. Thereby, we propose some policy suggestions on how to readjust the industrial structure.