福州产业结构升级与闽台两地经贸合作的耦合发展研究

Research on the Coupling Development of Upgrading of Industrial Structure in Fuzhou and Economic and Trade Cooperation between Fujian and Taiwan

文章利用耦合分析方法,构建福州产业结构升级和闽台两地经贸合作两个子系统的指标评价体系和耦合度评价模型,并运用2010-2016年的产业结构及经贸合作数据对两个子系统的耦合关系进行实证分析。结果发现:福州产业结构升级与闽台经贸合作之间存在着耦合关系,耦合关联度和耦合协调度都处于一个中度耦合和中度协调的阶段,特别是福州自贸试验区建立后两地经贸合作程度不断加深,自2014年后台商直接投资和实际利用台资大幅提升使得两个系统的耦合度和耦合协调度逐步调整上升,闽台经贸合作的不断深化将促进了福州产业结构的升级优化。未来福州可以在深化两地经贸合作的基础上,加大对两地高新技术产业、战略性新兴产业和现代服务业的产业对接力度,实现产业结构的优化升级。

This paper applies the coupling analysis method to establish an index evaluation system and a coupling evaluation model of the upgrading of industrial structure in Fuzhou and the economic and trade cooperation between Fujian and Taiwan,and employs the industrial structure and the economic and trade cooperation data from 2010 to 2016 to make an empirical analysis of the coupling relationship between the two systems. The empirical results show that there is a coupling relationship between the upgrading of industrial structure in Fuzhou and the economic and trade cooperation between Fujian and Taiwan. Both the degree of coupling correlation and the degree of coupling coordination are in a stage of moderate level,especially after the establishment of the Fuzhou Free Trade Pilot Zone,the economic and trade cooperation between Fujian and Taiwan has increasingly deepened.Since 2004,the direct investment of Taiwan Residents businessmen and the actual utilization of Taiwan capital make the coupling degree and the coupling coordination degree of the two systems be improved gradually,the continuous deepening of the economic and trade cooperation between Fujian and Taiwan promotes the upgrading and optimization of industrial structure in Fuzhou. In the future,Fuzhou can achieve the upgrading of industrial structure based on deepening the economic and trade cooperation,increasing the strength of industrial connectivity of high-tech industries,strategic emerging industries and modern service industries between Fujian and Taiwan.