“一带一路”背景下人民币汇率变动对工业制成品进出口贸易的影响研究

“One Belt And One Road” Strategy: The Influence of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation on the Import and Export Trade of Manufactured Goods

随着经济体制改革的不断深入,我国对外开放程度不断扩大,对外贸易规模的逐年递增,不仅对我国经济发展产生了强劲推力,而且在一定程度上缓解了就业压力,也为国际收支平衡奠定了坚实的基础。2013年"一带一路"倡议实施以来,人民币汇率的变动对我国进出口贸易的影响日益显现。选取1988—2015年工业制成品的年度数据进行分析,可以发现,国内生产总值、工业生产者购进价格指数、人民币汇率都对工业制成品的进出口存在不同程度的影响。从长期来看,人民币汇率每变动1个单位,工业制成品出口就会变动0.860118个单位,进口将会变动0.62563个单位;从短期来看,人民币汇率变动对工业制成品进出口贸易的影响更为显著。

In the historical process of China＇s reform and opening up,along with our country economic system reform deepening,expanding foreign open degree,foreign trade scale increasing year by year not only has a strong power on the economic development of our country,and to a certain extent,ease the employment pressure in China,as well as China＇s international balance of payments have a solid foundation. In particular,since the implementation of the One Belt And One Road strategy in 2013,the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China＇s import and export trade has become more and more obvious. This article selects 1988-3015 annual data of manufactured goods is analyzed,the basic conclusion is gross domestic product,industrial producers purchase price index,the RMB exchange rate is the influence of different degree of import and export of manufactured goods. In the long term,the exchange rate of RMB will be changed by one unit,and the export of manufactured goods will change by 0. 860118 units,and the import will change by 0. 62563 units. In the short term,the change of RMB exchange rate is more significant to the import and export trade of manufactured goods.