基于模糊评价和灰色预测对国家脆弱性的定量分析

Quantitative Analysis of National Vulnerability Based on Fuzzy Evaluation and Grey Prediction

针对国家脆弱性,选取25个国家2014年统计数据,确定11个二级指标,建立国家脆弱性指标体系。分别运用模糊综合评价和灰色预测等方法,建立国家脆弱性指数和灰色预测等模型,运用MATLAB等软件编程求解,得出中非、伊拉克等25个国家的国家脆弱性排名、脆弱性指数的置信区间,并预测了中国可能达到脆弱性临界值的时间。

In view of the national vulnerability,the statistical data of 25 countries were selected in 2014 to determine 11 two level indicators and to establish a national vulnerability index system.The use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and grey prediction method respectively,the establishment of national vulnerability index and grey prediction model,using MATLAB software programming,Africa,Iraq and other 25 countries in fragile countries drew a critical interval ranking,vulnerability index and predict China vulnerability index reached the critical value of time.