人民币实际汇率波动影响因素研究——基于宏微观一致模型的分析

Impact Factor Study of RMB Real Exchange Rate Fluctuation:Base on Macro and Micro Consistent Model

在宏微观一致的分析框架下建立了一个实际汇率的决定模型,基于理论模型和国内外的现实进行扩展,实证检验了不同因素对人民币实际汇率的作用。结果表明,人民币汇率形成机制改革变量对人民币实际汇率波动具有最强的解释力;贸易条件和相对流动性次之;相对生产率因巴萨效应在中国的传导渠道不畅通而对人民币实际汇率波动的解释力有限;净外部资产的解释力最弱,仅能引起人民币实际汇率小幅波动。因此,目前人民币汇率不适合过度自由的浮动弹性,应继续渐进放开弹性以保持实际汇率相对稳定,货币政策、产业结构优化政策都可以成为调节人民币实际汇率的手段。

Under the framework of macro and micro consistent analytical framework,a decision model of real exchange rate is established.Based on the theoretical model and the realities at home and abroad,the effect of different factors on the real exchange rate of RMB is tested.The results show that the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform had the strongest explanatory power for the RMB real exchange rate fluctuation.Terms of trade and relative money supply had the second explanatory power.Relative productivity＇s explanatory power was limited because the channel of B-S effect was not smooth in China.Net foreign assets had the weakest explanatory power and can only lead to real exchange rate fluctuation slightly.Therefore,the current RMB exchange rate is not suitable for free floating elasticity.We should continue to gradually release flexibility to keep the actual exchange rate relatively stable.Monetary policy and industrial structure optimization policy can become means to regulate the real exchange rate of RMB.