陕西省区域生态足迹动态变化及驱动因素差异研究

Study of dynamic changes and driving factors of regional ecological footprint of Shaanxi province

在分析2005—2015年陕西省陕北、关中、陕南三大区域人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力、人均生态赤字和生态压力指数等动态变化的基础上,采用STIRPAT模型及PLS方法比较了驱动三大区域间生态足迹变化的因素。结果表明,陕北、关中、陕南人均生态足迹分别增长了107.3%、68.1%、66.6%,人均生态赤字分别增长了296.7%、88.6%、346.0%,三大区域生态压力指数呈上升趋势,而万元GDP生态足迹呈下降趋势,区域生态差异性正逐步扩大。驱动三大区域生态足迹动态变化的主要因素是人均GDP、城镇化率和产业结构,其中,驱动陕北生态足迹发生变化的另一重要因素是人口总量。为此,提出加速陕北工业转型升级、推进关中产业与生态的协同发展、推动陕南绿色循环发展等对策建议。

Based on the analysis of the dynamic changes of per capita ecological footprint,per capita ecological carrying capacity,per capita ecological deficit and ecological tension index in northern Shaanxi,Guanzhong,and southern Shaanxi from 2005 to 2015,this paper compared the factors that drive the variation of ecological footprint among these three regions in Shaanxi province by adopting STIRPAT model and PLS method.The results showed that the per capita ecological footprint in northern Shaanxi,Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi increased by 107.3%,68.1% and 66.6% respectively,and the per capita ecological deficit increased by 296.7%,88.6% and 346.0% respectively.Ecological tension indexes of these three regions were on a rise,while the ecological footprint for ten thousand Yuan GDP presented degenerative trend.Regional ecological differences were gradually expanding.Per capita GDP,urbanization rate and industrial structure were the main factors driving the dynamic changes of Ecological Footprint in these regions.In northern Shaanxi,total population was another important factor.Therefore,some suggestions are offered as follows：accelerating the industrial transformation and upgrading in northern Shaanxi,advancing the coordinated development between industry and ecology in Guanzhong,and promoting the green circular development of southern Shaanxi.