2005—2014年疏勒河流域土地生态安全评价

Land ecological security in the Shule River Basin from 2005 to 2014

针对疏勒河流域生态环境脆弱、人地矛盾突出的特点,采用"环境-经济-社会(EES)"模型,建立疏勒河流域土地生态安全评价指标体系,构建土地生态安全评价的熵权物元模型,对疏勒河流域2005—2014年土地生态安全状况进行评价研究,并利用主成分分析法定量研究疏勒河流域土地生态安全的限制因子。结果表明:2005—2014年疏勒河流域土地生态安全还存在着恶化风险,2005—2007年风险降低,2007—2008年风险小幅增加,2008—2009年风险降低,2009—2013年风险大幅增加,2013—2014年风险有所降低;发展方向表现为"不安全→安全"的阶梯式上升趋势,其中,2005—2007年土地生态安全状态为"不安全",2008—2009年安全状态为"临界安全",2010—2011年安全状态为"较安全",2012—2014年安全状态为"安全";制约2005—2014年疏勒河流域土地生态安全水平提升的关键因子分别是人均耕地面积、森林覆盖率、人均水资源量、产水模数、第三产业产值与GDP占比和耗水率,其中,森林覆盖率和产水模数影响最大,主成分荷载达0.973和0.968。研究结果以期为疏勒河流域土地生态治理决策和人地关系和谐可持续发展提供科学依据。

For the characteristic of fragile ecological environment and prominent conflicts between human and land in the Shule River Basin,this paper applies ＂Environment-Economy-Society（EES）＂ model to build land eco-security evaluation index system in the Shule River Basin,and then it also builds land eco-security evaluation Entropy-weighted Matter Element Model.Land eco-security evaluation was studied in the Shule River Basin from 2005 to 2014,and the Principal Component Analysis（PCA）was used to quantitatively study the limiting factors of land ecological security of the Shule River Basin.The result shows that land eco-security had the deteriorated risk in the Shule River Basin during 2005 to 2014 among decreasing from 2005 to 2007;increasing slightly during 2007 to 2008;decreasing during 2008 to 2009,but significantly increasing from 2009 to 2013,and decreasing from 2013 to 2014.The development direction of land eco-security state was characterized by ＂unsafe→safety＂,and presented a stepped upward trend in the Shule River Basin from 2005 to 2014.The land eco-security state was ＂unsafe＂ from 2005 to 2007;the state conversed into the ＂Critical Safe＂ in 2008 and 2009,decreased from 2008 to 2009,significantly increased from 2009 to 2013,and increased from 2013 to 2014.The key factors that affected land eco-security in the Shule River Basin including per capita area of cultivated farmland（C1）,forest cover rate（C2）,water resource per capita（C3）,runoff modulus（C7）,ratio of the third industry to the GDP（C12）and water consumption rate（C15）.Among them,C2 and C7 had the greatest impact,with principal component load up to 0.973 and 0.968.It provides scientific evidence for land ecological governing decision and harmonious and sustainable development in man-earth relationship in the Shule River Basin.