基于偏离-份额分析法的长三角地区海洋产业发展及其优化

Development and Optimization of Marine Industry in Yangtze River Delta Based on Shift-Share Method

文章采用偏离-份额分析法,以2010—2014年为研究期,以环渤海地区、珠三角地区和全国为参照区域,分析长三角地区海洋产业的发展情况,并引入相对增长率指数、结构效果指数和竞争力指数进一步分析和验证。研究结果表明:2010—2014年长三角地区海洋产业的增长均较落后;海洋产业结构整体较好,海洋第一产业不具优势,海洋第二产业劣势明显,海洋第三产业优势明显;海洋第一产业的竞争力尚具优势,但海洋产业综合竞争力较低。在此基础上,提出双向挖掘海洋第一产业潜力、协调培育海洋第二产业动力和着力提升海洋第三产业竞争力的建议,以促进长三角地区海洋产业的可持续发展。

This study used Shift-Share Method to analyze the development of marine industry in Yangtze River Delta,taking 2010—2014 as the research period,and taking the Bohai Rim,the Pearl River Delta and the whole country as references.At the same time,this study introduced the relative growth rate index,structural effect index and competitiveness index for further analysis and verification.The results indicated that the growth of marine industries in Yangtze River Delta had lagged behind in 2010—2014;the overall structure of the marine industry was relatively good,the marine primary industry was not advantageous,the disadvantages of the marine secondary industry were obvious,and the marine tertiary industry had obvious advantages;the competitiveness of the primary marine industry was still advantageous,but the comprehensive competitiveness of the marine industry was relatively low.Based on this,suggestions on the two-way exploration of the potential of the marine primary industry,the coordinative development of the marine seconda-ry industry,and the efforts to enhance the competitiveness of the marine tertiary industry were proposed to promote the sustainable development of the marine industry in Yangtze River Delta.