房价波动、家庭资产配置与地区工业绩效——基于2004—2013年196个城市数据的经验分析

Housing Price Fluctuation,Family Assets Allocation and Regional Industrial Performance——An Empirical Analysis Based on 196 Cities′Data from 2004 to 2013

近十几年来中国住房价格持续上涨,过多占用城镇家庭的可支配收入,导致预防性和投机性储蓄居高不下,高风险金融产品需求不足,可能对工业创新活动产生负面影响。利用2004-2013年全国196个地级及以上城市的面板数据,实证分析了房价波动与工业绩效的关系。结果显示:商品房价格涨幅或者其与城镇家庭人均收入增幅的差值越高,越不利于规模以上工业企业的绩效增长;在房价向工业绩效的传导过程中,居民储蓄率起到了显著的中介作用,即高房价是通过阻碍家庭资产多元化配置,而对工业绩效产生抑制效应的。中国应深化土地制度及建设用地供应模式改革,抑制城镇房价非理性上涨,并进一步坚持资本市场改革,推动新型家庭金融集聚发展,实现创新资源对实体经济的有效供给。

In recent years,Chinese housing prices continuing to rise excessively occupies urban household disposable income,resulting in precautionary and speculative savings staying at a high level,demand for high risk financial products being inadequate,which may have a negative impact on industrial innovation activities.Based on panel data of 196 prefecture level cities in China from 2004—2013,this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between housing price fluctuation and industrial performance.Results show that：firstly,the bigger commercial housing price increase or the difference between it and the urban family per capita income increase,the worse impact on performance of industrial enterprises above designated size;secondly,in the process housing price generates influence on industrial performance,household saving rate shows a significant mediating effect,namely,high housing price blocks industrial performance through dragging the diverse allocation of family assets.China should deepen the reform of land system and construction land supply mode,control irrational rise of urban housing price,and further adhere to the reform of capital market to promote an agglomeration development of new household finance,and to realize an effective supply of innovative resources for the real economy.