青海省海东市1961—2015年气温变化趋势和演变特征

Temperature in Haidong, Qinghai: Variation Trends and Evolution Characteristics During 1961-2015

为了研究近55年来青海省海东市气温变化的特点及其规律,利用海东市5个气象站1961—2015年的逐月气温资料,使用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall突变检验和累积距平法等方法进行分析研究。结果表明:55年来海东市年平均气温、最高气温和最低气温呈极显著的增温趋势,年际增长率分别为0.33℃/10 a、0.33℃/10 a和0.43℃/10 a,从年代际变化来看,平均气温和最低气温(最高气温)在1990年之后(1980s—1990s)增暖趋势明显;四季平均气温、最高气温和最低气温均呈显著的增温趋势,存在着非对称性变化的特点,以最低气温增温更明显,冬季增温对年平均气温增高贡献最大,三者增温的强弱在时间和空间上均表现出不一致性;海东市年平均气温突变开始的具体时间是1996—1997年,最高气温于1993年发生突变。

The paper aims to study the characteristics and rules of temperature change in Haidong, Qinghai in 1961-2015. The authors studied monthly temperature data during the 55 years from 5 weather stations inHaidong by using linear trend, Mann Kendall mutation test and accumulative anomaly analysis and so on. Theresults showed that： the annual average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature had anevident warming trend, their annual growth rates were 0.33℃/10 a, 0.33℃/10 a and 0.43℃/10 a, respectively;from the point of decadal variability, the warming trend of average temperature and minimum temperature（maximum temperature） after 1990（1980s to 1990s） was obvious; the average temperature, maximumtemperature and minimum temperature of the four seasons had an evident warming trend with asymmetricalchange characteristics, however, the minimum temperature had the most apparent warming trend, and warmingin winter had the largest contribution to the increase of annual average temperature, the strength of warming ofthe average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature in time and space showedinconsistency; the annual average temperature had mutations from 1996 to 1997, while the maximumtemperature had a mutation in 1993.