长江经济带劳动力市场发展水平的空间非均衡性——基于Dagum基尼系数与Markov链方法的实证研究

Spatial Disequilibrium of Labor Market Development Level in the Yangtze River Economic Belt——Based on Dagum Gini Coefficient and Markov Chain Method

文章基于长江经济带五大城市群77个地级市及以上城市2006-2015年劳动力市场数据,采用Dagum基尼系数和Markov链估计方法,研究了长江经济带劳动力市场发展水平的地区差距及其动态演进过程。Dagum基尼系数及其分解结果表明:长江经济带五大城市群劳动力市场发展水平的基尼系数小幅波动且呈下降趋势,长三角、长中游、成渝城市群均呈现了"下降—上升—下降"的倒N型趋势,而黔中滇中城市群则呈现了"上升—下降—上升—下降"的M型趋势。区域内差异是劳动力市场发展水平总体差异的主要来源,而五大城市群区域内差距的贡献率基本维持50%左右的水平;进一步通过Markov链分析发现,长江经济带五大城市群劳动力市场发展水平状态相对稳定,各类型地区劳动力市场发展水平分布均匀,尤其在低水平地区与高水平地区表现更为显著。

This paper,based on the labor market data of 77 prefecture-level cities of the five major urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2006 to 2015,applies the Dagum Gini coefficient and the Markov chain estimation method to study the regional disparities and the dynamic evolution of the labor market development level in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition results show that： The Gini coefficient of the overall labor market development level of the five major urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt shows a slight fluctuation and a downward trend. The Yangtze River Delta,the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,Chengdu and Chongqing urban agglomerations show an inverted N trend of＂down-rise-down＂. Whereas the urban agglomerations in the central Guizhou and the central Yunnan provinces present a M trend of ＂rise-down-rise-down＂. The differences within the region are the main source of the overall differences in the level of labor market development. Whereas the contribution rate of the gap between the five major urban agglomerations within the region is basically about 50%; The further Markov chain analysis finds that the labor market development level of the five major urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is relatively stable. The labor market development level in various types of regions is evenly distributed,especially in the low-level and high-level areas.