钉住制度可能成为金融危机的诱因

The Peg System May Become the Inducement of Financial Crisis

在钉住制度下,外汇市场不能通过供求关系变动来调节汇率走向,也无法通过汇率波动来调整外汇市场供求关系来实现市场出清。因此,当本币被持续高估时可能造成经济衰退;当本币被持续低估时可能造成通货膨胀或资产价格泡沫。也就是说,当国际收支失衡不能通过汇率波动的方式来自动调整,就有可能通过金融危机的方式来强制调整。

Under the peg system, foreign exchange market cannot regulate the tendency of foreign exchange rate through supple and demand relationship, also cannot realize the market clearing via adjusting supple and demand relationship by fluctuation of exchange rate. Therefore, the economic depression may happen when local currency is consistently over-evaluated, whereas the inflation or assets price bubbles will be caused if local currency is continuously under-evaluated.That is to say, if balance of payments cannot self-adjust through the fluctuation of exchange rate, it is certain to be regulated forcibly through financial crisis.