复杂仿真系统可信度评估研究进展

Research progress on credibility assessment of a complex simulation system

建模与仿真技术应用广泛,现已成为人们认识和改造现实世界的重要手段,而仿真系统可信与否是仿真用户十分关注的问题.随着仿真对象愈发复杂以及用户对仿真应用要求越来越高,仿真系统呈现出多种复杂特性,以致于其可信度评估面临诸多挑战.本文首先总结了国内外仿真可信度评估发展历程,并分析了复杂仿真系统的特点及可信度评估面临的问题;然后,在此基础上给出了复杂仿真系统可信度评估解决方案及应对策略;最后总结了复杂仿真系统可信度评估所面临的挑战与机遇,指出了未来研究方向.

Modeling and simulation have been used extensively, and they have become an important means to recognize and remold the real world. Whether the simulation system is credible has been a concern of simulation users. Various complexity characteristics of the simulation systems are presented with increasingly complex simulation objects and higher application requirements, creating some challenges in credibility assessment. First,the development process of the simulation credibility assessment is summarized. Next, the characteristics of complex simulation systems and the problems of the credibility assessment are analyzed, and some solutions and countermeasures for the assessment problems are provided. Finally, the challenges and opportunities of the credibility assessment for complex simulation systems are summarized, and the corresponding future research directions are indicated.