登陆中国东南沿海热带气旋气压变化的重现期分析

The return period analysis for pressure change of tropical cyclone landfall in southeastern coast of China

为正确考虑和衡量核电厂选址风暴潮灾害分析中热带气旋登陆过程时出现的气压填塞量的取值,利用1949-2014年在我国东南沿海登陆的台风气压资料,建立了登陆前TC中心气压与登陆后气压填塞量二维Copula联合分布函数,通过同现重现期表征出两种样本筛选条件下两种边缘分布的相关关系。结果表明:Frank Copula函数可以适应样本联合分布;考虑在台湾登陆的TC样本与不考虑时相比,相同同现重现期水平在登陆前气压边缘分布方向上要增加10 h Pa左右;气压填塞量在25 h Pa以内时,填塞量越小,同现重现期越大。

The pressure filing events occurred during the landfall of tropical cyclone is a matter of concern in the relevant engineering. This paper constructs the binary copula function between the center pressure of typhoon before landfall and pressure filing after landfall with the typhoon data from 1949 to 2014. The relationship of two margin distribution was characterized by conception of coincidence return period under two samples of different filter conditions. The results show that frank copula function could be used to construct bivariate distribution with these samples; the coincidence return period calculated from sample enclosing Taiwan Island increases 10 h Pa along the margin distribution of typhoon center pressure before landfall in contrast with sample not enclosing Taiwan Island; when the value of pressure filing is less than25 h Pa, the less coincide pressure filing value, the larger coincide return period value will be.