基于我国生物天然气项目的补贴政策模拟分析

Subsidy simulation analysis based on biogas project in China

生物天然气是我国生物质能发展中重要的一部分,但原料收集难、生物天然气消纳难、沼肥消纳难等问题严重阻碍了该行业的发展。以大型生物天然气项目为例,利用净现值法对当前存在的问题,从补贴侧进行模拟分析,计算不同补贴方案下的项目盈利性,结果显示,我国生物天然气补贴达到2.5元/m3或者沼肥补贴达到现价的110%,考虑30%的沼气厂废弃率,该补贴额度在合理范围之内。最后建议政府调整补贴策略为后端补贴,适当提高总补贴额,建议组合专项补贴,从不同角度加快生物天然气行业的发展。

Bio-natural gas is an important part of the development of biomass energy in China, but problems such as the difficulty of collection of raw materials, natural gas sales, and fertilizers sales have seriously hampered the development of the bio-natural gas industry, This paper took a large-scale bio-natural gas project as an example to simulate the subsidy analysis on collection of raw materials, natural gas sales fertilizers sales according to the net cash flow method. Then the paper got the results about the amount of subsidy under different subsidy modes and confirms the best subsidy mode, and it is reasonable under 30% of bio-natural gas projects abandoning that the subsidy of bio- natural gas and fertilizers are 2.5Yuan/m3 and 110% of price partly. Finally it provided reference for the formulation of government policies.