我国养老服务业发展的绩效评价——基于31个省域数据

The performance evaluation of the development of China's elder service industry——based on the data of 31 province

发展养老服务业是完善我国基本公共服务供给的重要战略部署,亦是经济发展新的增长极。从财政支持、服务提供、服务利用、市场潜力4个方面构建养老服务业发展的综合指标体系,采用因子分析法和层次分析法确定指标权重,并在此基础上运用模糊综合评价法对我国31个省份进行养老服务业发展绩效评价。研究发现,我国养老服务业发展存在省域差异,经济发展水平决定财政支持力度和市场潜力,进一步影响养老服务业发展绩效,同时部分省域间还存在服务提供和服务利用极不平衡的现象。对此提出缩小区域发展差距,明确政府作用,注重供需匹配,最大化满足养老服务需求等政策建议。

Develop elder service industry is an important strategic plan for improving basic public services supply in China,and also a new growth pole of economic development. From four aspects of financial support,service supply,service utilization and market potential,this paper constructs a comprehensive index system for the development of elder service industry. It uses factor analysis and analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weight,and on this basis,we use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the performance of elder service industry in 31 provinces in China. It is found that there are provincial regional differences in the development of elder service industry in China.The level of economic development determines financial support and market potential,and further affects the performance of the service industry. At the same time,there is serious unbalance between service supply and service utilization in some provinces. Finally,the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward.