基于置信区间的机场高峰服务能力评估研究

Research on Evaluation of Airport Peak Service Capability Based on Confidence Interval

以置信区间的统计学理论为基础,按照机场时刻容量评估技术规范的最新要求,对基于历史数据的机场高峰服务能力评估方法进行了改良和优化。证明了繁忙时段内机场小时进离场架次及其欧几里得距离在大样本数据下近似服从正态分布。在此基础上,引入单侧置信区间剔除异常值,对全国21个协调机场的历史高峰服务能力进行了评估。结果表明:改良后的方法能够快速且合理地评估机场的高峰服务能力,同时其结果不受样本基数的影响。通过讨论机场历史高峰服务架次与机场公布容量的动态关系,对机场高峰服务能力评估工作提出了合理化建议。

Based on the statistical theory of confidence interval,this paper improves and optimizes the evaluation method of airport peak service capability based on historical data according to the latest requirements of airport time capacity assessment technical specification. Firstly,it was proved that the airport hourly arrivals and departures and its Euclidean distance during busy hours approximately obey the normal distribution under large sample data. On this basis,the paper introduces unilateral confidence intervals to remove outliers and assessed the historical peak service capacity of 21 coordinated airports across the country. The results show that the improved method can quickly and reasonably evaluate the airport＇s peak service capacity,and its results are not affected by the sample base. Finally,by discussing the dynamic relationship between theairport history peak service capability and the published capacity of the airport,it puts forward sound suggestions for airport peak service capability assessment.