陕北乡城迁移及人口分布变动研究(2000～2010)

Study on the Rural-Urban Migration and Population Distribution Changes in Northern Shaanxi(2000-2010)

根据第五次和第六次乡、镇、街道级人口普查数据,采用统计和空间可视化等方法,分析2000~2010年陕北地区所处的人口迁移阶段及其人口分布变动特点。研究发现,在此期间陕北人口迁移流动主要以乡城迁移为主,同时城城迁移已经出现,处于早期转型社会向晚期转型社会过渡的阶段。在迁移推力、拉力、阻力以及微观个体理性决策下,人口主要迁入了各级行政、商业中心和能源经济区。研究认为,陕北人口乡城迁移过程具有良好的经济效益和生态价值,未来陕北乡城迁移将逐渐减少,而城城迁移将快速增加。

Based on the data of the fifth and sixth population censuses at township,town and street levels,using the methods of statistic and spatial visualization,the migration stage and the characteristics of population distribution changes in northern Shaanxi between 2000 and 2010 are analyzed. The study found that the population migration was dominated by rural-urban migration during this period in northern Shaanxi,but the urban-urban migration has appeared too. It is in the transitional stage from an early transitional society to a late one. Under the migration pushing force,pulling force,resistance and micro-individual rational decision-making,migrants have mainly migrated into the administrative and commercial centers,as well as energy economic zones. It is believe that the rural-urban migration process in northern Shaanxi has good economic efficiency and ecological effect. In the future,the rural-urban migration will decrease gradually,and the urban-urban migration will increase rapidly.