中国省域PM_(2.5)浓度行业驱动因素的时空异质性研究

Study on spatiotemporal heterogeneity of industry driving factors in PM_(2.5) concentration in China

面对近年来频发的雾霾污染,坚定"打好蓝天保卫战"是我们整治大气环境问题的决心。探寻和厘清各重点行业对PM_(2.5)浓度的贡献量,判定影响更为显著且更为广泛的行业,划定目前最迫切需要整治的重点区域,期望为深入推进贯彻落实国务院《大气污染防治行动计划》中"重点行业重点区域"这一减排思路提供依据。基于此,本文以2000—2014年省域PM_(2.5)浓度及相关重点行业为研究对象,利用STIRPAT模型构建PM_(2.5)浓度变化的解释模型,进而运用GTWR模型探究行业驱动因素的时空异质性。拟合结果表明:不同行业影响系数表现出显著的时空异质性,从时间上看,不同行业的演化趋势特征鲜明,火力发电行业的拟合系数先减小后趋于稳定,钢铁业系数波动变化后趋于稳定,水泥、建筑行业的系数则在不断增加后趋于稳定,供暖行业先减小后增加,而采矿行业的拟合系数为负向增加,为不同行业减排政策的调整提供依据。从空间上看,区域间重点行业的影响差异显著,火力发电行业较多的影响东部各省,钢铁行业则显著影响着中西部主要的产业转移接收地,水泥行业对各省域的影响系数有正有负,而余下的建筑业、供暖业和采矿行业的影响则表现出区域特色。因此,全国统一的控制政策亟待调整。为提出针对行业特征和区域差异的控制政策,以四象限区域划分结果结合行业生产规模作为重点区域分类的依据,依据分类结果给出对应的政策调整建议。依据上述分析及结论,对于改善空气质量、控制PM_(2.5)浓度提出以下三条政策建议:制定行业标准,倒逼企业转型;明确分区控制,差异治理策略;注重技术衔接,突出后发优势。

In recent years, fog and haze occur frequently, and ‘ Lay the Blue Sky Battle＇ is our determination to control air pollution. This paper explored and clarified the contribution of various key industries to the concentration of PM2.5, determined the industries with more significant and more extensive impacts, and delineated the key areas that are most urgently needed to be rectified, hoping to provide the basis for deepening the implementation of the emission reduction idea of Key Industry Key Areas in the Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan issued by the State Council. In this paper, based on the concentration of PM2.5 in the province from 2000 to 2014, the model of PM2.5 concentration was constructed by STIRPAT model, and then it used the GTWR model to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the driving factors of each industry. The results showed that： the influence coefficient of each industry showed significant temporal and spatial heterogeneity. From the perspective of time, the evolution of different industries showed a distinctive feature, the coefficients of the thermal power industry and steel industry tended to stabilize after strengthen the control, and the inffluence coefficients of cement and construction industry increased at first and then became stabilized. The heating industry＇ s coefficient first reduced then increase, while the mining industry＇ s impact coefficient decreased. These results provided a basis for the adjustment of emission reduction policies in different industries. From perspective of space, there were significant differences between the impacts of regional industries. The thermal power industry had a greater impact on the eastern provinces. The steel industry had a significant impact on major industrial transfer of the receiving area in the central and western provinces. The impact coefficients of the cement industry were both positive and negative. The inffluence of the heating industry and the mining industry showed regional characteristics, so the national unified control policy should be adjusted. In order to put forward the control policy with industrial and regional differences, the regional classification results combined with industrial product output in 2014 are referred to classify key regions, and then we can provide corresponding policy adjustment recommendations based on the classification results. According to the above analysis, the policy recommendations are summarized as follows： developing industrial standards, forcing enterprises to transform; clarifying the control on the division of key region, adopting different governance strategies, emphasizing technical convergence, and highlighting the advantages of backwardness.