京津冀地区产业结构与水资源的关联性分析及双向优化模型构建

Correlation analysis and bidirectional optimization model of industrial structure and water resources in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

京津冀地区水资源产业优化配置对于推进京津冀经济社会持续协同发展具有重要的支撑作用。京津冀地区水资源产业优化,是以京津冀整体发展目标为主、京津冀各地区产业发展目标为从的主从递阶双层优化过程。但目前鲜有学者提出采用主从递阶双层优化的思路实现京津冀地区水资源产业优化。为此,在明确京津冀地区水资源产业优化方向基础上,结合京津冀整体和各地区的经济社会发展目标,构建主从递阶双层优化模型,实现京津冀地区水资源产业优化配置。首先,探讨京津冀地区产业结构与用水结构的演变态势,剖析三次产业结构的变动差异与水资源利用结构的演变成因,测算三次产业结构变动系数和用水结构弹性系数;结合京津冀三次产业发展与水资源利用的长时间序列数据,建立产业结构与水资源关联性分析模型,测算产业结构与水资源之间关联度,以确定京津冀地区产业结构与水资源优化的方向。其次,合理界定京津冀地区产业结构与水资源双向优化的内涵,应用主从递阶双层优化模型,构建京津冀整体的经济、社会与生态环境目标函数与约束条件,以及各地区三次产业发展的目标函数与约束条件,集成建立京津冀地区产业结构与水资源双向优化模型。最终对模型参数进行合理预测并求解模型,确定京津冀地区产业结构与水资源双向优化方案,实现京津冀地区水资源产业优化配置,并进一步提出保障京津冀水资源产业优化配置的对策建议。

The optimization allocation of water resources utilization and industrial structure has important supporting functions for the sustainable and coordinated development of eco-society in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The optinfization of industrial structure and water resources is a principle-subordinate hierarchical bidirectional optinfization process. It takes overall Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region＇ s development goals as a primary-goal, and takes industrial development goals among Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei as a subordinate goal. But few scholars put forward an idea of principle-subordinate hierarchical bidirectional optinfization to optinfize industrial structure and water resources utilization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Therefore, based on clarifying the optinfization direction of industrial structure and water resources utilization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, principle-subordinate hierarchical optinfization model combined with the development goals in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was established to optinfize the industrial structure and water resources allocation. Firstly, this paper discussed the evolution of industrial structure and water resources utilization structure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The variation of industrial structure and evolution origin of water resources utilization structure were analyzed. And the paper measured the changing coefficient of industrial structure and the elastic coefficient of water resources utilization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Then, combined with long time sequence data of three industries development and water resources utilization, the relevant degree of industrial structure and water resources utilization based on the relevant analysis model was constructed, to determine the direction of industrial structure and water resources optimization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Secondly, the connotation of bidirectional optimization of industrial structure and water resources was defined reasonably in Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei region. The objective function and constraints of both economic, social and ecological environment and industrial development were given, to get bidirectional optimization model of industrial structure and water resources in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Finally, the paper predicted reasonable model parameters, and proposed the solving method of the model, to determine bidirectional optimization scheme of industrial structure and water resources, and to optimize industrial structure and water resources utilization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Then, the paper further put forward the suggestions of ensuring the optimal allocation of water resources industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.