基于成本收益回归模型的美国有机牧场转型经验及启示

Experiences and Enlightenment on the Transformation of US Organic Farms Based on Cost-Return Regression Model

随着我国居民对有机乳品需求的增长,我国许多传统乳制品生产商面临向有机方式转型的问题。文章借鉴美国有机牧场转型的经验,选取美国农业部对传统和有机牧场成本收益的资源调查,探讨有机牧场数量与其成本收益之间的关系。研究发现牧场收益中的售出乳制品数对有机牧场的数量有显著的正向影响,成本中的畜牧管理和药品的开支与有机牧场的数量也存在正相关的关系。而成本中的营运资本利息、干草以及废弃物、雇佣劳动力成本和无酬劳动的机会成本对有机牧场的数量有负面影响。我国有机乳业在转型中可以增加畜牧管理和药品的开支,同时注重降低干草及废弃物处理、营运资本利息以及劳动力的成本支出。

With increasing demand of organic dairy, many Chinese conventional operations have problem transferring to organic operations. Based on the experience of the US organic operations, using the costs and returns of conventional and organic farms from Agricultural Resource Management Survey, this paper explores the relationship between the number of organic farms and different components of returns and costs. This paper finds out milk sold has significant positive effect on the number of organic farms. Veterinary and medicine have a positive relationship with the number of organic farms. Interest on operating capital, bedding and litter, hired labor cost and opportunity cost of unpaid labor have negative effect on the number of organic farms. Transformation to organic dairy operation can focus on increasing inputs on veterinary and medicine in China. Also China can eliminate the costs on bedding and litter, interest on operating capital, and labor.