贸易战对航运影响几何

Overview of the trade war and the effect on shipping

贸易战是一部加速的列车,每一个限制贸易的措施都会让它加速,也越来越难停下来。长期来看,它带来了不确定性,如果这些措施持续下去或进一步升级,有可能导致目前的全球经济增长脱离轨道。尽管贸易战涉及世界最大的三个经济体,但是从总量来看,对航运的影响比较有限.

The trade war adds painful uncertainty for the shipping industry, as it distorts the free flow of goods, changes trade lanes and makes it difficult for ship operators and owners to position their ships efficiently in the market. The trade war is a speeding train, accelerating with every trade-restrictive retaliatory measure imposed and becoming ever more difficult to stop. The longterm effect provides uncertainty and could possibly derail current global growth if the measures are kept or further escalated. Even though the world's three largest economies are involved, the effect on shipping, in terms of volumes, is somewhat limited. BIMCO's chief shipping analyst Peter Sand comments "The trade war adds painful uncertainty for the shipping industry, as it distorts the free flow of goods, changes trade lanes and makes it difficult for ship operators and owners to position ships efficiently in the market. The dry bulk shipping industry has already been affected by the steel and aluminium tariffs and will be hit again when further tariffs come into force in July. However, the impact on the dry bulk shipping industry in terms of volumes remains limited. The same can be said for container shipping, which although containerised goods have been and will be targeted again in July, the number of containers impacted is in the big picture relatively small". The dry bulk shipping industry will by far be the most affected in terms of volumes, both in scheduled and already implemented tariffs.However, the dry bulk products targeted so far only represent a minimal amount of the total seaborne dry bulk trade. Similarly, the containerised goods affected also represent a small amount of the total containerised trade.