农户农业经营代际继承意愿和时点的影响因素研究——基于门槛回归模型的实证分析

Impact Factors on Farmers' Willingness and Time Point of Intergenerational Succession in Agricultural Management——Based on Evidence of Threshold Regression Model

根据冀鲁豫三省516份农户调研数据建立实证模型,分析影响农业家庭经营农户子代继承意愿和时点的决定因素。结果表明,目前农户农业经营代际传承面临困境,仅四成农户子代愿意继承农户农业资源。村中有无农民合作社或家庭农场对农户子代继承意愿无显著影响。农民合作社可显著缩短农户子代继承时点,家庭农场则显著延长农户子代继承时点。农户子代近两年农忙是否回家、农户农业资源代际传递意愿和健康状况显著正向影响农户子代农业经营继承意愿,负向影响其继承时点。此外,男性农户子代农业继承时点显著长于女性农户子代。基于此,政府可通过引导农户成立和加入农民合作社提高农户农业经营代际传递意愿,进而影响其子女代际继承决策。

Taking 516 households actually engaged in agricultural management in thine provinces of Hebei, Shandong and Henan Province as an example, an empirical model was set up to analyze the influence factors of the willingness and time of intergenerational succession of agricultural household management. The results showed that the intergenerational succession of agricultural management was facing difficulties. Only 40% of the rural households were willing to inherit the agricultural resources of their parents. Whether there were family farms or farmer cooperatives in the village had no significant impact on the willingness of intergenerational succession of agricultural management. Farmers cooperatives significantly shortened the time point of intergenerational succession for rural households, while family farms had significantly extended the time point of intergenerational succession of rural households. Whether the farmers＇ offspring were going home in the last two years and farmers＇ willingness to transfer agricultural resources intergenerational and heahh had a significant positive impact on the willingness of intergenerational succession of agricultural household management, and negatively affected the time. In addition, male farmers＇ offspring agricultural succession time point was significantly longer than that of female farmers＇ offspring. Based on this conclusion, the government should guide farmers to establish and join farmers cooperatives. Farmers cooperatives could improve the intergenerational transfer willingness of the farmers＇ agricultural operation, which influenced their offspring＇s intergenerational succession decision-making.