重大突发事件中公众安全感的影响因素研究——基于32起事件网络爬虫数据的QCA分析

The Research on Influence of Public Security in Significant Emergency and Management——QCA Analysis Based on Web Crawler Data of 32 Events

基于社会心理危机的风险放大机制,构建突发事件中公众安全感影响因素模型,其影响因素分别是事件属性、政府应对、媒体传播和群体心理与行为。利用网络爬虫软件对2014~2016年32件重大突发事件,包括新闻、新浪微博、百度搜索指数等在内的相关文本数据进行采集,通过定性比较分析（QCA）探寻在重大突发事件中导致公众安全感缺失的必要条件和逻辑条件组合。结果显示,影响范围广、应对不及时、谣言的存在和消极的群体情绪,是导致公众安全感丧失的必要条件。当其他条件变量与必要条件同时发生时,最容易引发公众安全感的缺失。在所有的影响因素中,媒体传播对公众安全感的解释力最大,其次分别是事件属性、群体心理及行为和政府应对。据此,构建以提升应急能力为目的,政府、媒体和社会公众协同参与的心理危机治理机制。

Based on the risk amplification mechanism of social psychological crisis,constructing the model of influencing factors of public security inemergency. The influencing factors are event properties,government response,media communication and group psychology and behavior. Using web crawler software to collect relevant textual data about 32 major incidents including news,Sina Weibo,Baidu search index and so on from 2014 to 2016,to explore the requirements and logical conditions leading to public security loss in significant emergencies through qualitative comparative analysis（ QCA）. The result shows that large-scale influence,untimely response,existence of rumors and negative emotion are the requirements leading to the loss of public security. When other condition variables occur with the requirements simultaneously,which is most likely to trigger public security loss. Among all the influencing factors,media communication has the most explanatory power on public security,followed by event properties, group psychology and behavior, government response.Therefore,we should construct a psychological crisis management mechanism with the participation of government,media and the public in order to enhance the emergency response capability.