浙江省物流产业碳排放测算及影响因素分析

Estimation and Influence Factors of Carbon Emissions by Logistics Industry in Zhejiang

利用2001-2015年浙江省物流产业能耗量面板数据,对浙江省物流产业碳排放进行测算与特征分析。在此基础上运用LMDI分解技术,构建浙江物流产业碳排放变化影响因素模型,定量分析研究期内碳排放因子效应、能源结构效应、能源效率效应、运输方式效应、物流产出效应、经济发展效应、人口规模效应等因素对浙江省物流产业碳排放量的变化影响。结果表明经济发展效应是浙江省物流产业碳排放量持续增长的最主要影响因素,人口规模、运输方式与能源结构效应也表现出一定的拉动作用,但相对经济规模效应较弱;而物流产出、能源强度效应对浙江省物流产业的碳排放变化却呈现出抑制作用。最后提出低碳物流的相关发展建议。

In this paper, using the panel data of the energy consumption of the logistics industry in Zhejiang from 2001 to 2015, we measured and analyzed the characteristics of the carbon emissions of the industry. Then on such basis, we used the LMDI decomposition technology to construct the model of the influence factors of the carbon emissions changes of the industry and analyzed quantitatively the effect of carbon emissions factors, energy structure, energy efficiency, transportation mode, logistics output, economic development, and population scale, etc., on the changes in the carbon emissions. The results indicated that economic development is the most prominent factor affecting the continuous growth of the carbon emissions of the logistics industry in Zhejiang; population size, transportation mode and energy structure also show a certain pulling effect, but with weak relative economic scale effect; however, logistics output and energy intensity have a restraining effect on the changes of the carbon emissions of the logistics industry in Zhejiang. At the end, we proposed some suggestions on the development of the low-carbon logistics industry.