基于Logit模型的京石通道客流分担率预测

Prediction of Passenger Flow Sharing Ratio of Beijing-Shijiazhuang Channel Based on Logit Model

在考虑经济性、快速性、便捷性、舒适性、安全性、准时性6个影响因素的基础上,构建效用函数,建立基于多项Logit的客流分担率模型,并对京石通道内旅客进行RP和SP问卷调查,通过问卷调查的数据确定模型参数,然后对影响因素效用值进行无量纲化处理,预测京石通道内不同月收入旅客的高速公路、普通铁路、城际铁路、高速铁路四种运输方式分担率。最后分析不同月收入旅客对影响因素的敏感性和四种运输方式的分担率的变化。

In this paper, considering the six influence factors which are economy, rapidity, convenience, comfort, safety and punctuality, we constructed the utility function and the multinomial Logit based passenger flow sharing ratio model, through a RP and SP questionnaire survey on passengers on the Beijing-Shijiazhuan channel, determined the model parameters, and then after dedimensionalizing the utility value of the influence factors, forecast the sharing ratio of passengers of different monthly income levels across the four transportation modes of the Beijing-Shijiazhuang Channel, including the expressway, ordinary railway, inter-city railway and highspeed railway. At the end, we examined the sensitivity of the passengers of different monthly income levels to the influence factors and the changes in the sharing ratio of the four modes.