“一带一路”背景下中-老运输通道货运量分担率预测方法研究

The Sharing Rate Prediction Method of the China-Laos Railway under One Belt and One Road Initiative Background

为了分析中老铁路开通运营后货物运输发展格局,在考虑货主选择货物运输方式影响因素的基础上,选取运输能力、运输时间、运输费用、服务水平4个因素作为效用函数的构成变量,然后利用AHP法赋权,最后通过改进Influ-Logit模型来预测中老运输通道内公路及铁路货流分担率。预测结果显示:中老铁路开通后,公路与铁路的货运分担率分别为53.1%和46.9%,中老铁路运输相比公路具有较大优势,特别是区域市场的货运量分担率具有很大的提升空间。

In order to analyze the development pattern of freight transportation after opening and operation of China-Laos railway, 4 variables of the utility function are chosen including transportation capacity, transportation time,transportation cost and service level based on the analysis of the factors affecting the selection of freight transport modes. The AHP method is utilized to analyze the weight of variables. The Influ-Logit model is used to predict cargo sharing rate in highway and railway. The results show that after the opening of the China-Laos railway, the freight sharing ratios of highway and rail are 53.1% and 46.9% respectively. Compared with the highway, the railway transportation has great advantages, and the freight sharing rate in the regional market has great potential for improvement.