基于负荷分解和灰色理论的电网最大负荷预测

Maximum Grid Load Forecasting Based on Load Decomposition and Grey Theory

气温和用户业扩报装直接影响电网的最大负荷。通过分析电网的负荷特性和最大负荷影响因素,建立了包括基础负荷分量、最大空调负荷分量和历史报装用户累积释放负荷分量的电网最大负荷预测模型,采用灰色理论对各负荷分量进行预测。算例结果表明,该模型能准确把握气温和用户业扩报装对电网最大负荷的影响程度,有效改善负荷预测精度,为电网的规划和运行提供借鉴。

Temperature and business extension directly affect the growth of maximum load of power grid. By analyzing the load characteristics and the influencing factors of maximum grid load, a maximum load forecasting model including base load component, maximum air-conditioning load component and cumulative release-load component of business extension is established. The load components are predicted by grey theory.The calculation example shows how the model can influence accurately grasp the influence of temperature and business expansion on maximum grid load forecasting to improve load forecasting accuracy and provide reference for grid planning and operation.