旅游收入预测方法的比较

Comparison of Tourism Revenue Forecast Methods

为更好地预测旅游收入,分析国内旅游的发展情况,本文就国内旅游收入,选取影响旅游收入的因素旅行社、铁路里程数、居民人均旅游花费等建立统计回归模型,同时以2004~2014年的旅游收入为原始数据列构建灰色预测模型.分析两种模型对旅游收入预测结果,预测结果显示统计回归模型的预测精度要高于灰色预测模型.

In order to better forecast the tourism revenue, and analyze the development of domestic tourism, in this paper, the statistical regression model is established based on the factors affecting the tourism revenue, the mileage of the railway, the per capita travel expenses of the residents, etc. At the same time, the Grey Model is constructed by taking the tourism revenue of 2004 - 2014 years as the original data column to analyze the forecast results of the two models which show that the prediction accuracy of the statistical regression model is higher than that of grey prediction model.