“一带一路”背景下劳动力成本上涨是否抑制进出口贸易的发展?

Whether the Labor Cost Increasing Restrains the Development of Import and Export Trade under the Background of “One Belt,One Road”

基于劳动力成本及广西对东盟商品贸易的现状,以1998-2016年广西对东盟商品贸易的统计数据为样本,建立VAR模型,通过脉冲响应和方差分解确定劳动力成本、居民消费、汇率及固定资产投资影响广西对东盟商品贸易出口额、进口额的程度,结果表明:劳动力成本影响广西对东盟商品贸易出口额与进口额的程度较小;居民消费与固定资产投资影响广西对东盟出口商品贸易额的程度较大;汇率对广西从东盟进口商品贸易额的影响程度也较大。

Based on the current situation of labor cost and Guangxi and ASEAN merchandise trade,the VAR model of econometrics was established based on the statistical data of Guangxi in 1998-2016. Through impulse response and variance decomposition,the impact of labor cost,household consumption,exchange rate and fixed asset investment on the exports,imports and total of Guangxi and ASEAN merchandise trade was determined. Results show that： the influence level of the labor cost and Guangxi and ASEAN trade in goods exports and imports is small,the impact of residents＇ consumption and investment in fixed assets on Guangxi and ASEAN export commodities trade is significant,and the impact of the exchange rate on Guangxi and ASEAN imports trade is also big.