基于冷链食品供应链风险传染效应的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Risk Contagion Effect of Food Supply Chain Based on Cold Chain

选取食品加工、冷链物流和餐饮企业构建三级供应链风险传染模型,利用三元VAR-GARCHBEKK模型估计供应链中的风险传染效应。研究表明,食品加工和冷链物流企业之间存在双向风险传染效应,冷链物流与餐饮企业之间存在单项的风险传染效应。冷链物流在该供应链中起到桥梁和纽带的作用。实证研究结果对于正确认识冷链物流的作用、合理制定相关的政策措施来防范该类供应链中潜在的风险有积极的作用。

The selection of food processing,construction of three level supply chain risk contagion model of cold chain logistics and catering enterprises,estimate the risk contagion effect in the supply chain using the three element VAR-GARCH-BEKK model. The study shows that there exists a two-way risk contagion effect between food processing and cold chain logistics enterprise,risk contagion effect between individual and cold chain logistics cold chain catering enterprises. To play the role of bridge and link in the supply chain. The empirical results for a correct understanding of the role of cold chain logistics,formulate relevant policies and measures to prevent the potential risks of the supply chain,have a very positive effect.