能源“不可能三角”中的权衡抉择

The Trade-off in Energy Impossible Trinity

当前我国能源领域的市场机制和监管框架已基本建立,能源发展已逼近效率前沿。即便如此,我国仍面临能源价格合理、能源供给充足和能源清洁环保这三大目标难以同时实现的＂不可能三角＂。基于此,本文在识别出现代能源经济体系建立后的约束和冲突的基础上,提出在禀赋和偏好下进行权衡抉择：在需求侧,以经济增速放缓为代价,淘汰部分高耗能企业和产品,优化产业结构;在供给侧,以增加企业和个人的用能成本为代价,提升非化石能源比重和实现化石能源的清洁利用,优化能源结构;辅之以财税改革和构建国际能源新秩序等配套措施,共同助力社会福利最大化。

At present, the market mechanism and regulatory framework in China＇s energy sector have been basically established, and energy development has approached the frontier of efficiency. Even so, it is still difficult to simultaneously achieve following three goals： reasonable energy prices, adequate energy supply and clean energy,which is called Energy Impossible Trinity. Based on the identification of constraints and conflicts after the establishment of modern energy economic system, this paper proposes a trade-off according to endowment and preference.On the demand side, at the cost of slowing economic growth, some energy-intensive enterprises should be eliminated.On the supply side, at the expense of increasing energy costs of enterprises and individuals, it is necessary to increase the proportion of non-fossil energy and improve clean utilization of fossil energy, optimizing the energy structure; fiscal reform and construction of a new international energy order are helpful to maximize the social welfare.