生猪产业链价格传导路径及其影响研究

Study on the price transmission path of pig industry chain and its impact

本文使用SVAR模型,基于两种玉米价格支持政策对玉米价格和生猪市场的影响,比较和分析了生猪产业链上游至下游再到一般价格水平（CPI）的价格传导特征,弥补了以往生猪价格传导分析忽略政策影响的不足。不同政策时期,中国生猪产业链价格传导的特征有显著差异。一方面,政策执行期内玉米价格对生猪价格的近期和累积效应均较强;另一方面,政策改革期内生猪价格对CPI的近期和累积效应均较弱。并且,政策改革期内生猪价格预测误差的方差分解中,玉米价格贡献显著增大至28%。此外,不同政策时期也有相同特征,仔猪价格对生猪价格影响在不同政策时期均较为显著。

This paper uses the SVAR model to compare and analyze the price transmission characteristics of the pig industrial chain from upstream to downstream to the general price level（CPI）, based on the impact of two corn price support policies on corn prices and the pig market. There are significant differences in the characteristics of price transmission in the Chinese pig industry chain during different policy periods. During the policy implementation period, the recent and cumulative effects of corn prices on pig prices were strong. On the other hand, the recent and cumulative effects of pig prices on CPI during the policy reform period were weak. Moreover, in the variance decomposition of the pig price forecast error during the policy reform period, the corn price contribution increased significantly to 28%.In addition, different policy periods have the same characteristics, and the impact of piglet prices on pig prices is significant in different policy periods.