粮食主产区要素投入贡献率测度研究

Research on Measurement of Contribution Rate of Essential Factors in Major Grain Producing Areas

本文以1990-2016年粮食主产区省级面板数据为基础,通过扩展的C-D生产函数结合逐步回归,将整个研究时段以每9年为一个区间划分为1990-1998年、1999-2007年、2008-2016年三个时间段,分别测算了化肥施用量、农业机械总动力、粮食播种面积、受灾面积、农业从业人数、有效灌溉面积、农产品生产价格指数等要素对主产区粮食产出增长的贡献率。结果表明：技术进步和有效灌溉面积成为现阶段主产区粮食增产的新途径,贡献率分别达到54.59%和19.3%,且其影响程度有进一步增强的趋势;粮食播种面积的贡献率排在第三位,受灾面积的贡献率呈现出先增加后减少的变化趋势,个别年份出现反弹现象;化肥施用量和农业机械总动力对主产区粮食产量的积极影响不断减弱,而农产品生产价格指数的贡献率不断增强。

Based on the provincial panel data during 1992-2015 grain production as the foundation,through the expansion of the production function of C-D--Solow combined with stepwise regression,residual method, the whole study period every 8 years for a partition for the 1992-1999, 2000-2007,2008-2015 three time periods were calculated by the application of chemical fertilizer the amount of total power of agricultural machinery, grain sown area, disaster area, agricultural labor, the effective irrigation area of the six elements of the main producing areas of grain output growth contribution rate. The results show that the technological progress and the effective irrigation area become the main producing areas at the present stage of the new way of increasing grain yield, the contribution rate reached 57.8% and 18.8%respectively, with further enhancement tendency and its influence, the contribution rate of grain sown area ranked third in the affected area, the contribution rate of change presents a trend of increased first and then decreased. Individual year rebound phenomenon, and a positive impact on the amount of chemical fertilizer and agricultural machinery total power on grain yield of the main producing areas of weakening.